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Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power
By 1991, following the disintegration first of the Soviet bloc and then of the Soviet Union itself, the United States was left standing tall as the only global super-power. Not only the 20th but even the 21st century seemed destined to be the American centuries. But that super-optimism did not last long. During the last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century, the stock market bubble and the costly foreign unilateralism of the younger Bush presidency, as well as the financial catastrophe of 2008 jolted America – and much of the West – into a sudden recognition of its systemic vulnerability to unregulated greed. Moreover, the East was demonstrating a surprising capacity for economic growth and technological innovation. That prompted new anxiety about the future, including even about America’s status as the leading world power. This book is a response to a challenge. It argues that without an America that is economically vital, socially appealing, responsibly powerful, and capable of sustaining an intelligent foreign engagement, the geopolitical prospects for the West could become increasingly grave. The ongoing changes in the distribution of global power and mounting global strife make it all the more essential that America does not retreat into an ignorant garrison-state mentality or wallow in cultural hedonism but rather becomes more strategically deliberate and historically enlightened in its global engagement with the new East. This book seeks to answer four major questions:1. What are the implications of the changing distribution of global power from West to East, and how is it being affected by the new reality of a politically awakened humanity?
2. Why is America’s global appeal waning, how ominous are the symptoms of America’s domestic and international decline, and how did America waste the unique global opportunity offered by the peaceful end of the Cold War?
3. What would be the likely geopolitical consequences if America did decline by 2025, and could China then assume America’s central role in world affairs?
4. What ought to be a resurgent America’s major long-term geopolitical goals in order to shape a more vital and larger West and to engage cooperatively the emerging and dynamic new East?
America, Brzezinski argues, must define and pursue a comprehensive and long-term a geopolitical vision, a vision that is responsive to the challenges of the changing historical context. This book seeks to provide the strategic blueprint for that vision.
2. Why is America’s global appeal waning, how ominous are the symptoms of America’s domestic and international decline, and how did America waste the unique global opportunity offered by the peaceful end of the Cold War?
3. What would be the likely geopolitical consequences if America did decline by 2025, and could China then assume America’s central role in world affairs?
4. What ought to be a resurgent America’s major long-term geopolitical goals in order to shape a more vital and larger West and to engage cooperatively the emerging and dynamic new East?
America, Brzezinski argues, must define and pursue a comprehensive and long-term a geopolitical vision, a vision that is responsive to the challenges of the changing historical context. This book seeks to provide the strategic blueprint for that vision.
224 pages, Hardcover
Published January 24, 2012
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1,969 people want to read
About the author
Zbigniew Brzeziński
74 books332 followersZbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski was a Polish-American political scientist, geostrategist, and statesman who served as United States National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981. Known for his hawkish foreign policy at a time when the Democratic Party was increasingly dovish, he is a foreign policy realist and considered by some to be the Democrats' response to Republican realist Henry Kissinger.
Major foreign policy events during his term of office included the normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China (and the severing of ties with the Republic of China), the signing of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II), the brokering of the Camp David Accords, the transition of Iran to an anti-Western Islamic state, encouraging reform in Eastern Europe, emphasizing human rights in U.S. foreign policy, the arming of the mujaheddin in Afghanistan to fight against the Soviet-friendly Afghan government, increase the probability of Soviet invasion and later entanglement in a Vietnam-style war, and later to counter the Soviet invasion, and the signing of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties relinquishing U.S. control of the Panama Canal after 1999.
He was a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a member of various boards and councils. He appeared frequently as an expert on the PBS program The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
Major foreign policy events during his term of office included the normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China (and the severing of ties with the Republic of China), the signing of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II), the brokering of the Camp David Accords, the transition of Iran to an anti-Western Islamic state, encouraging reform in Eastern Europe, emphasizing human rights in U.S. foreign policy, the arming of the mujaheddin in Afghanistan to fight against the Soviet-friendly Afghan government, increase the probability of Soviet invasion and later entanglement in a Vietnam-style war, and later to counter the Soviet invasion, and the signing of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties relinquishing U.S. control of the Panama Canal after 1999.
He was a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a member of various boards and councils. He appeared frequently as an expert on the PBS program The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
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February 16, 2016
Is American leadership necessary? This was the question I set out to answer when I began looking the analyses of foreign policy experts. One of these experts is Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981). Brzezinski was instrumental in the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords signed by Anwar Sadat and Menachim Begin.
Brzezinski has written many books suggesting initiatives and directions for American foreign policy since he left office, most notably his book Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower in which he describes the successes and failures of three administrations (Bush I, Clinton I, and Bush II) to pull Russia into the European community after the failure of the Soviet state, to address the festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and to begin to address widening disparities in wealth & influence among the world’s partners. He has long felt that the world’s remaining superpower could help steer increasingly contentious countries to solutions we will need on problems which will soon arise for all of us in a world changed by climate. Without leadership, the world might not be able to orient our direction to solutions that lessen the burdens of inequality.
In Strategic Vision, written before the reelection of President Obama for a second term in 2012, Brzezinski sounds far more apocalyptic than he ever has, suggesting that unless we take control of our internal political mayhem, the corruption of our financial and political systems, and the widening gap between the wealthy and the rest, we may find the world has moved on, without leadership, to a bunch of special interest nationalities, all seeking to preserve their own interests in an interdependent world.
Naturally, I didn’t like this book as well because it posits there are no roads back once we have missed our opportunities. New opportunities come when old ones are exhausted, but the central question is whether or not we are ready to create opportunities to steady and lessen the rancor developing throughout the world to pressures all of us will be subject to very shortly (debilitating changes wrought by climate change). The American populace seems more awake now than at any other time in recent memory, with outside candidates for president railing at the corruption in the system. We have enormous pressures for change within our own society as a result of political gridlock for precious years. Perhaps the political will is finally solidifying to make the changes necessary. Now we just need to choose a president who can be effective with so many internal and external challenges to their leadership.
Brzezinski is a Sovietologist by education and is extraordinarily fluent, fascinating, and lucid on the subject of changes Russia has undergone and that are ongoing in Russia. It is worth reading the book for that portion alone. He makes a special attempt to incorporate Obama’s pivot to Asia in this book, examining how the strengths and weakness of the Asian and south Asian economies and political systems affect the global balance of power, pointing to India and China as the most populous and potentially influential power centers.
He makes a point about China that is worth reiterating: as a country with a homogeneous population and long history of central control, it has been extraordinarily effective in creating an extremely strong national identity. That nationalism is something quite new in the experience of other national entities, riven as they are by populations with different religions and races. China’s sense of itself in the world is just developing: its leaders are patient, but its people are ambitious. They face enormous resource and population pressures and difficulties in modifying their one-party system. We don’t know how this will play out in years to come, but currently China has a stake in the U.S. managing to get the corruption of our financial system under control. It doesn’t want to see us fail in this, not right now. We shouldn’t want it to fail, either.
Brzezinski talks about Obama as president, praising Obama’s speeches as candidate and as president, but noting that Obama never spoke to the American people directly about the challenges we face. Part of the job of a leader is to educate its populace, and to ask it to sacrifice for the common good. Obama failed dismally in not raising for public discussion the corruption of special interest money in election financing, the pressures of climate change on our aging infrastructure, the need for restraint in corporate governance. I feel painfully that missed opportunity, but there is some indication in the early presidential election results that some people have gotten the message anyway, no thanks to a hot-air media which is never so happy than when repeating its own predictions and inaccuracies.
Brzezinski writes of the central position of Turkey and its ambitions, and supports the notion that it would eventually be welcomed into the EU. He still holds out hope that Russia would rein in its divisive tendencies, leading to a conception of the West that looks like the entire North of the globe, including all of North America, through the Mediterranean, and encompassing Russia. This is a large leap, especially in light of recent events, but I like seeing how Brzezinski got there.
Brzezinski has written many books suggesting initiatives and directions for American foreign policy since he left office, most notably his book Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower in which he describes the successes and failures of three administrations (Bush I, Clinton I, and Bush II) to pull Russia into the European community after the failure of the Soviet state, to address the festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and to begin to address widening disparities in wealth & influence among the world’s partners. He has long felt that the world’s remaining superpower could help steer increasingly contentious countries to solutions we will need on problems which will soon arise for all of us in a world changed by climate. Without leadership, the world might not be able to orient our direction to solutions that lessen the burdens of inequality.
In Strategic Vision, written before the reelection of President Obama for a second term in 2012, Brzezinski sounds far more apocalyptic than he ever has, suggesting that unless we take control of our internal political mayhem, the corruption of our financial and political systems, and the widening gap between the wealthy and the rest, we may find the world has moved on, without leadership, to a bunch of special interest nationalities, all seeking to preserve their own interests in an interdependent world.
Naturally, I didn’t like this book as well because it posits there are no roads back once we have missed our opportunities. New opportunities come when old ones are exhausted, but the central question is whether or not we are ready to create opportunities to steady and lessen the rancor developing throughout the world to pressures all of us will be subject to very shortly (debilitating changes wrought by climate change). The American populace seems more awake now than at any other time in recent memory, with outside candidates for president railing at the corruption in the system. We have enormous pressures for change within our own society as a result of political gridlock for precious years. Perhaps the political will is finally solidifying to make the changes necessary. Now we just need to choose a president who can be effective with so many internal and external challenges to their leadership.
Brzezinski is a Sovietologist by education and is extraordinarily fluent, fascinating, and lucid on the subject of changes Russia has undergone and that are ongoing in Russia. It is worth reading the book for that portion alone. He makes a special attempt to incorporate Obama’s pivot to Asia in this book, examining how the strengths and weakness of the Asian and south Asian economies and political systems affect the global balance of power, pointing to India and China as the most populous and potentially influential power centers.
He makes a point about China that is worth reiterating: as a country with a homogeneous population and long history of central control, it has been extraordinarily effective in creating an extremely strong national identity. That nationalism is something quite new in the experience of other national entities, riven as they are by populations with different religions and races. China’s sense of itself in the world is just developing: its leaders are patient, but its people are ambitious. They face enormous resource and population pressures and difficulties in modifying their one-party system. We don’t know how this will play out in years to come, but currently China has a stake in the U.S. managing to get the corruption of our financial system under control. It doesn’t want to see us fail in this, not right now. We shouldn’t want it to fail, either.
Brzezinski talks about Obama as president, praising Obama’s speeches as candidate and as president, but noting that Obama never spoke to the American people directly about the challenges we face. Part of the job of a leader is to educate its populace, and to ask it to sacrifice for the common good. Obama failed dismally in not raising for public discussion the corruption of special interest money in election financing, the pressures of climate change on our aging infrastructure, the need for restraint in corporate governance. I feel painfully that missed opportunity, but there is some indication in the early presidential election results that some people have gotten the message anyway, no thanks to a hot-air media which is never so happy than when repeating its own predictions and inaccuracies.
Brzezinski writes of the central position of Turkey and its ambitions, and supports the notion that it would eventually be welcomed into the EU. He still holds out hope that Russia would rein in its divisive tendencies, leading to a conception of the West that looks like the entire North of the globe, including all of North America, through the Mediterranean, and encompassing Russia. This is a large leap, especially in light of recent events, but I like seeing how Brzezinski got there.
November 19, 2016
There is an elite class of individuals that go beyond financial wealth. Consider billionaires like Buffet or Gates with their wimpy 70 or 80 Billion compared to Clans, Cabals and Syndicates that sit on vast resources. When a barrel of oil costs between $50 and $200 a barrel and your family controls trillions of barrels of it, ask yourself, is Billy Gates atop real power or does Queen Beatrix and the King of Saudi Arabia and Khamenei of Iran trump all. You might as well throw the Banking Dynasties in the mix that sort out all of the royals' and mafias' practical wealth. They are the True Elite (the .0001%). In this light billionaires are best understood as Top Tier Management class.
The True Elite may not operate in perfect sync as many blatant conspiracy theories would have you believe but without a doubt they operate under a Conspiracy of Culture, sharing the same goal: maintain their power which is as old as the hills and do their best to create the illusion of politicians and CEO's in charge of it all. They'll use every dirty trick including Dark Arts and wars to succeed.
A long championed elitist-idea-management man, Brzezinski, is a go to figure for decades on par with another elitist-idea-management man, Kissinger. Brzezinski's Strategic Vision is not a great book as far as reading goes but it should give you an insight as to what the True Elite have in store for all of us plebs and chattle. It should also help you understand why Trump and his Nationalist persona has been selected to lead the creation of the new American image for the next 8 years; and why the Globalists' Golden Girl Hillary was thrown under the bus.
It is essential to understand the global elite strive for a global government with un-elected officials managing the whole affair. A global tax on all peasants is the ideal tool to keep us universally in check. The globalists' agenda has been marching forward with great success for decades (think Euro Zone and the Democratization of the Middle East and the creation of an aspiring management class in Asia.)
Apparently the push toward globalization has peaked and the expected backlash, a peasant revolt, has begun, a new and unique development in human history that is taking place around the world; it is unprecedented in reach and volume, and it is also the greatest threat to all global power structures: the ‘global political awakening.’ The term was coined by Brzezinski, and refers to the fact that, as Brzezinski wrote:
"For the first time in history almost all of humanity is politically activated, politically conscious and politically interactive. Global activism is generating a surge in the quest for cultural respect and economic opportunity in a world scarred by memories of colonial or imperial domination."
In order to quell the revolt and secure control, Brzezinski is recommending a pull back of sorts. It's time to understand Nationalism, to own it once again. After all, if you want control of the world and you have already taken three giant steps forward toward that goal, it's time to take one step back while realizing you have still taken two giant steps forward firmly planted on terra fermata.
Read this book for no other reason than to understand the global strategies of the rulers of the world and how they plan to press their thumb one way or another atop of you.
The True Elite may not operate in perfect sync as many blatant conspiracy theories would have you believe but without a doubt they operate under a Conspiracy of Culture, sharing the same goal: maintain their power which is as old as the hills and do their best to create the illusion of politicians and CEO's in charge of it all. They'll use every dirty trick including Dark Arts and wars to succeed.
A long championed elitist-idea-management man, Brzezinski, is a go to figure for decades on par with another elitist-idea-management man, Kissinger. Brzezinski's Strategic Vision is not a great book as far as reading goes but it should give you an insight as to what the True Elite have in store for all of us plebs and chattle. It should also help you understand why Trump and his Nationalist persona has been selected to lead the creation of the new American image for the next 8 years; and why the Globalists' Golden Girl Hillary was thrown under the bus.
It is essential to understand the global elite strive for a global government with un-elected officials managing the whole affair. A global tax on all peasants is the ideal tool to keep us universally in check. The globalists' agenda has been marching forward with great success for decades (think Euro Zone and the Democratization of the Middle East and the creation of an aspiring management class in Asia.)
Apparently the push toward globalization has peaked and the expected backlash, a peasant revolt, has begun, a new and unique development in human history that is taking place around the world; it is unprecedented in reach and volume, and it is also the greatest threat to all global power structures: the ‘global political awakening.’ The term was coined by Brzezinski, and refers to the fact that, as Brzezinski wrote:
"For the first time in history almost all of humanity is politically activated, politically conscious and politically interactive. Global activism is generating a surge in the quest for cultural respect and economic opportunity in a world scarred by memories of colonial or imperial domination."
In order to quell the revolt and secure control, Brzezinski is recommending a pull back of sorts. It's time to understand Nationalism, to own it once again. After all, if you want control of the world and you have already taken three giant steps forward toward that goal, it's time to take one step back while realizing you have still taken two giant steps forward firmly planted on terra fermata.
Read this book for no other reason than to understand the global strategies of the rulers of the world and how they plan to press their thumb one way or another atop of you.
September 8, 2012
Regardless of what you think of the man, this book is written with breathtaking clarity. The charts, numbers and graphs are very convincing to say the least
It also provides me a bit of hope in this new geopolitical climate that USA won't go from number 1 to number 10 but will instead slide into a co operative model with BRiC
It also provides me a bit of hope in this new geopolitical climate that USA won't go from number 1 to number 10 but will instead slide into a co operative model with BRiC
December 7, 2017
في هذا البحث يحذر بريجنسكي ( وهو المفكر الأستراتيجي ومستشار الأمن القومي لدى كارتر بين عامي ١٩٧٧-١٩٨١ ) على ان تدهور الولايات المتحدة من الداخل والخارج مستقبلاً، سيسبب عواقب دولية وكذلك أزمة نفوذ وقوه وفوضى عارمة .
كما ينوه عن الصحوة السياسية والأقتصادية للشرق ، وعلى أمريكا أن تبذل جهوداً مشتركة ضد أخطار عالمية مثل الأنتشار النووي ، والتغيير المناخي ، والأستقرار الجيوسياسي في العالم وخاصة في الشرق.
ولذلك يجب على أمريكا أن تتبنى استراتيجية مستجيبة لمصالحها الأقليمية ، وذلك بضم روسيا وتركيا الى الغرب الحيوي لتعزيز وحدة غربية أكبر وأوسع ، وأما في الشرق لابد أن تعمل على تحقيق توازن بين الكتلة القارية الأسيوية بشرط عدم التورط بتدخل عسكري مباشر في تلك الصراعات الشرقية .
January 19, 2012
concise and easy to follow. The main premise is that the world's future is murky if the US falls from global power. He believes that the rise of China although economically certain is politically uncertain. The future of the world depends on the US adopting a dual role. It must be the promoter and guarantor of greater unity in an expanded West (including Russia and Turkey), and a balancer and conciliator between major powers in the East. Conspicuously missing from the equation is the role of the Middle East which appears to be assumed to remains on the sidelines of history.
October 15, 2019
Ez volt a legjobb XX. századi geopolitikai elemzés azok közül, amiket eddig olvastam – a sors iróniája, hogy egy olyan nevű szerző tollából, akit nem feltétlenül mernék megnevezni beszélgetés során. (Hihetetlen, micsoda feleslegük lehet a lengyeleknek mássalhangzóból! Nem akarnak velünk párat elcselélni ékezetes magánhangzóra?) Brzezinski nagyjából ugyanazon a vonalon indul el, mint az amerikai mélázók többsége: a Nyugat válságából és az új aspiránsok megerősödéséből, aminek köszönhetően a hatalom mintha keletre tolódna. Ennek elsődleges oka, hogy az USA (jelentős részben önhibájából) elvesztegette az ideológiai-geopolitikai előnyt, ami a keleti blokk szétesése után az ölébe esett, így már nem vitatlan örök időkig tartó monopóliuma. Brzezinski fejtegetései világosan vázolják az általa elképzelt helyzetet, de nem ez benne a pláne (nettó hülyeségeket is lehet világosan fejtegetni): alapvetően két eleme miatt volt üdítő olvasni.
Az egyik, hogy lényegesen diverzifikáltabban láttatja a helyzetet, mint kollégáinak többsége. Európát nem csak Amerika függelékeként említi, olyan szánalmas, katonailag nem számottevő egységként, ami némi vállvonogatásnál többet nem érdemel, hanem mint sajátos konstrukciót saját problémákkal, egy folyamatban lévő kísérletet, aminek a sikerre csak bizonyos rendszerszintű változások mellett van esélye. (De úgy van esélye.) A felemelkedő aspiránsok vizsgálatakor is tartózkodik attól, hogy homogén tömböknek tekintse őket, és sok hangsúlyt fektet egymáshoz való viszonyukra is. (Ehhez csinos kis táblázatokat is igénybe vesz.) Kínát például nem önmagában, hanem Kelet-Ázsia teljes geopolitikai rendszerében mutatja be – a felemelkedő Indiával, Japánnal és az agresszív nacionalizmusra hajlamos Oroszországgal együtt, jelezve, hogy az USÁ-val ellentétben egy globális elsőbbségre vágyakozó Kínának előbb egy nagyon sűrű közegben kell valamiféle stabilitást létrehoznia. Amennyiben ezt elmulasztja (és itt meglebegtet Brzezinski is egy analógiát) könnyen olyan helyzetbe navigálhatja magát, mint a szintén viharos gyorsasággal felemelkedő Németország az első világháború előtti Európában.
A másik plusz ebben a könyvben (ami természetesen valahol az első logikus következménye), hogy Brzezinski a történelmet nem eleve elrendelt eseménysorként kezeli, katasztrofikus forgatókönyveket zúdítva az olvasóra, hanem mértéktartóan, választási lehetőségek sorozataként. Egy ország vizsgálatakor a prókat és a kontrákat is végigveszi, kiemelve, mely erősségekre támaszkodva tudja elkerülni a bukást. Megoldási alternatívái is szeretnivalóan pacifisták, ahol csak lehet, a békés megegyezést, a konszenzust tartja alkalmazandónak akár Európáról és Oroszországról*, akár Amerikáról és Kínáról van szó, felismerve, hogy egy globális kereskedelmi viszonyrendszerben akár egy regionális apokalipszis is borzasztó gazdasági következményekkel jár. Ez ugyan nem teszi lehetetlenné a háborúkat (különösen ha a nacionalista populizmus átveszi az irányítást az elmék fölött), de elviselhetetlenül költségessé teszi őket, aminek köszönhetően a győztes is veszít. Okos, mértéktartó írás, nem jóslás kávézaccból, hanem a szükséges kompromisszumok megmutatása még időben, hogy ne akkor sírjon a szánk, mikor már késő.
* Kifejezetten érdekes B. fejtegetése Törökország EU-s csatlakozásának szükségességéről – természetesen csak azután, hogy bizonyos demokratikus szabványoknak megfelelteti rendszerét. Ezzel az EU amellett, hogy kontroll alá helyezhetné az instabil Közel-Keletet (nagy jót téve az USÁ-nak is), bizonyítaná, hogy az iszlám és a liberális demokrácia nem összeegyeztethetetlen – opciót kínálva a manapság még igen harmatos arab demokratikus ellenzéknek is. Viszont az EU és Törökország elhidegülése valószínűleg oda vezetne, hogy az Európa második legnagyobb katonaságával rendelkező nemzet elindulna a radikalizmus útján.
Az egyik, hogy lényegesen diverzifikáltabban láttatja a helyzetet, mint kollégáinak többsége. Európát nem csak Amerika függelékeként említi, olyan szánalmas, katonailag nem számottevő egységként, ami némi vállvonogatásnál többet nem érdemel, hanem mint sajátos konstrukciót saját problémákkal, egy folyamatban lévő kísérletet, aminek a sikerre csak bizonyos rendszerszintű változások mellett van esélye. (De úgy van esélye.) A felemelkedő aspiránsok vizsgálatakor is tartózkodik attól, hogy homogén tömböknek tekintse őket, és sok hangsúlyt fektet egymáshoz való viszonyukra is. (Ehhez csinos kis táblázatokat is igénybe vesz.) Kínát például nem önmagában, hanem Kelet-Ázsia teljes geopolitikai rendszerében mutatja be – a felemelkedő Indiával, Japánnal és az agresszív nacionalizmusra hajlamos Oroszországgal együtt, jelezve, hogy az USÁ-val ellentétben egy globális elsőbbségre vágyakozó Kínának előbb egy nagyon sűrű közegben kell valamiféle stabilitást létrehoznia. Amennyiben ezt elmulasztja (és itt meglebegtet Brzezinski is egy analógiát) könnyen olyan helyzetbe navigálhatja magát, mint a szintén viharos gyorsasággal felemelkedő Németország az első világháború előtti Európában.
A másik plusz ebben a könyvben (ami természetesen valahol az első logikus következménye), hogy Brzezinski a történelmet nem eleve elrendelt eseménysorként kezeli, katasztrofikus forgatókönyveket zúdítva az olvasóra, hanem mértéktartóan, választási lehetőségek sorozataként. Egy ország vizsgálatakor a prókat és a kontrákat is végigveszi, kiemelve, mely erősségekre támaszkodva tudja elkerülni a bukást. Megoldási alternatívái is szeretnivalóan pacifisták, ahol csak lehet, a békés megegyezést, a konszenzust tartja alkalmazandónak akár Európáról és Oroszországról*, akár Amerikáról és Kínáról van szó, felismerve, hogy egy globális kereskedelmi viszonyrendszerben akár egy regionális apokalipszis is borzasztó gazdasági következményekkel jár. Ez ugyan nem teszi lehetetlenné a háborúkat (különösen ha a nacionalista populizmus átveszi az irányítást az elmék fölött), de elviselhetetlenül költségessé teszi őket, aminek köszönhetően a győztes is veszít. Okos, mértéktartó írás, nem jóslás kávézaccból, hanem a szükséges kompromisszumok megmutatása még időben, hogy ne akkor sírjon a szánk, mikor már késő.
* Kifejezetten érdekes B. fejtegetése Törökország EU-s csatlakozásának szükségességéről – természetesen csak azután, hogy bizonyos demokratikus szabványoknak megfelelteti rendszerét. Ezzel az EU amellett, hogy kontroll alá helyezhetné az instabil Közel-Keletet (nagy jót téve az USÁ-nak is), bizonyítaná, hogy az iszlám és a liberális demokrácia nem összeegyeztethetetlen – opciót kínálva a manapság még igen harmatos arab demokratikus ellenzéknek is. Viszont az EU és Törökország elhidegülése valószínűleg oda vezetne, hogy az Európa második legnagyobb katonaságával rendelkező nemzet elindulna a radikalizmus útján.
March 7, 2012
I read this book because I love its author on "Morning Joe." I heard his strong, knowledgeable voice in this small volume and sat and read it in a couple of hours. It is a bit dry--but it contains information about our past and some keys to our future as a country and a society. I learned something--and that's what reading great books is all about.
August 18, 2019
تكلم كثيرا على الدور الصيني وتطلعه للتفوق عالميا
يحتوي على مجموعة كبيرة من الارقام و الإحصاءات
ويذكر كيف يمكن لامريكا ان تستمر في سيطرتها على العالم وامكانياتها المتوفرة،
لكنه يذكر ان العالم بعد سنة 2025 ليس صينيا وانما فوضويا
اهمل ايضا نقطة مهمة في العالم يمكن ان تغير مساره وهي اذا تمكن العالم الاسلامي من التوحد ليصبح دولة واحدة قد يقلب موازين كل العالم
يحتوي على مجموعة كبيرة من الارقام و الإحصاءات
ويذكر كيف يمكن لامريكا ان تستمر في سيطرتها على العالم وامكانياتها المتوفرة،
لكنه يذكر ان العالم بعد سنة 2025 ليس صينيا وانما فوضويا
اهمل ايضا نقطة مهمة في العالم يمكن ان تغير مساره وهي اذا تمكن العالم الاسلامي من التوحد ليصبح دولة واحدة قد يقلب موازين كل العالم
March 6, 2015
Fresh, unique, creative look at how the United States and The West could remain globally relevant this century, while peacefully accommodating the rise of China. Brzezinski's vision is such a break with the status quo, I actually read it twice, several months apart, so that I could more fully digest his nuanced, optimistic vision for the century.
This is not pontification from a politically correct professor, this isn't armchair quarterbacking. This was written by Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and thereafter continually active in US Foreign Policy circles.
Overall thinking is that:
* By 2025, the US financial situation is apopalyptic
* By 2050, China's per capita GDP will be close to Japan's current inflation adjusted GDP
* By 2050, Europe and the US together will economically be much smaller than China
* The US-Japan and US-Korea alliance allows the US in Asia to mimic the UK in Europe's balance of power strategy
* The West should be enlarged to integrate Turkey, and eventually integrate Russia, into a free trade and free immigration zone stretching from Vancouver east to Vladivostok. Only a larger west can engage the China of 2050 as an equal.
Back in 1997, Brzezinski wrote in The Grand Chessboard (1997):
Sections that I highlighted while reading follow, organized by relevant region.
How Asia got here
Most significant leadership roles in the first G-20 meeting in 2009 were played by the presidents of two states: the USA and China.
Inklings of Asia's emergence on the international scene first came into view with the brief rise of Japan as a major military power following its victory in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.
Based on high rates of savings, moderate wages, deliberate concentration on high technology, and the inflow of foreign capital through energetically promoted exports, Japan's GDP grew from $500 billion in 1975 to $5.2 trillion in 1995.
Before long, Japan's economic success was emulated—though in politically more authoritarian settings— by China, South Korea, Taiwan, the Association of Southeastern Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, and Indonesia, as well as by the more democratic India.
China, no longer faced by a potential Soviet threat and thus free to focus its resources on domestic development, achieved a degree of infrastructural modernization comparable to what had transpired in the West over the course of the previous century.
China and other Asian states a perplexing amalgam of economic liberalism and state capitalism demonstrated a surprising capacity for economic growth and technological innovation. Why don't we in the west soberly evaluate this system, learn from it, and adapt the benefits? Instead, we let our [so called] "free market" and "democracy" be surpassed by the incremental innovations in Asian politics.
UNITED STATES
The United States is still preeminent but the legitimacy, effectiveness, and durability of its leadership is increasingly questioned worldwide because of the complexity of its internal and external challenges. Nevertheless, in every significant and tangible dimension of traditional power—military, technological, economic, and financial—America is still peerless.
This reality may not endure for very long but it is still the current fact of international life.
Idealism & materialism defined America from the start and helped obscure and justify should have been profoundly troubling: eviction and extinction Indians (with the Indian Removal Act, passed by Congress in 1830, representing the first formalized case of ethnic cleansing), slavery, repression and segregation of black Americans.
The Mexico seen by the US was ignored by others until recently. An expansionist and territorially greedy power, ruthless in its pursuit of material interests, imperialist in its international ambitions, and hypocritical in its democratic affectations. Planting of the American flag in the Hawaiian kingdom and some decades later even across the Pacific, in the Philippines (from which the United States withdrew only after World War II). Cuba and parts of Central America also had encounters with US power that were reminiscent of Mexico's experience.
President George W. Bush: “Our nation is chosen by God and commissioned by history to be a model for the world” (August 28, 2000).
America's flawed financial system is a major liability. Financial speculators both in banks and in hedge funds, effectively immune to shareholder control, reaped enormous personal profits without the redeeming benefits of economic innovation or job creation.
Recent studies comparing US intergenerational earnings mobility to those of various European countries show that overall economic mobility is actually lower in “the land of opportunity” than in the rest of the developed world.
On a symbolic level, the fact that China—in rural and small-town respects still a premodern society—is now moving ahead of the United States in such highly visible examples of twenty-first-century structural innovation speaks volumes. As America's infrastructure continues to decay it will inevitably impact its economic output.
Poorly educated American citizens. What passes for news tends to be trivia or human-interest stories. Cumulative effect of such widespread ignorance makes the public more susceptible to demagogically stimulated fear, especially when aroused by a terrorist attack. Public ignorance creates an American political environment more hospitable to extremist simplifications—abetted by interested lobbies—than to nuanced views of the inherently more complex global realities of the post–Cold War era. Key word here: demagogy.
Building off of the public's basic ignorance of world history and geography, profit-motivated mass media exploited public fears allowing for the demagogically inclined Bush administration to spend eight years remaking the United States into a crusader state
America's existing political system—highly dependent on financial contributions to political campaigns—is increasingly vulnerable to the power of well-endowed but narrowly motivated domestic and foreign lobbies that are able to exploit the existing political structure in order to advance their agendas at the expense of the national interest.
Process with roots as large and as deep as political polarization is unlikely to be reversed easily, if at all.... Our nation is in for an extended period of political warfare between the left and the right.
The basic fact, which the currently fashionable deconstruction of the American system tends to slight, is that America's decline is not foreordained.
Advantages
* America's relatively strong demographic base, especially when compared to those of Europe, Japan, and Russia.
* America's capacity for reactive mobilization. The pattern of its democratic politics is for delayed reactions, followed by social mobilization in the face of a danger that prompts national unity in action.
* Some of America's liabilities provide ready-made foci for social mobilization on behalf of socially constructive goals.
* Unlike some major powers, America has the advantage of a uniquely secure, natural resource–rich, strategically favorable, and very large geographic base for a population that is nationally cohesive and not beset by any significant ethnic separatism.
* America's location on the edge of the world's two most important oceans—the Atlantic and the Pacific—offers a security barrier while America's shores provide a springboard for maritime commerce and, if necessary, for transoceanic power projection.
* Broad view of America as fundamentally a democracy still retains its residual appeal.
Could patiently and persistently pursued domestic reforms turn America into an example of an intelligent society in which a productive, energetic, and innovative economy serves as the basis for shaping a society that is culturally, intellectually, and spiritually more gratifying?
After Collapse
Hence one “intermediate” and perhaps more likely outcome could involve a period of inconclusive domestic drift, combining spreading decay in America's quality of life, national infrastructure, economic competitiveness, and social well-being, though with some belated adjustments in US foreign policy somewhat reducing the high costs and painful risks of America's lately practiced propensity for lonely interventionism.
Deepening domestic stagnation would further damage America's global standing, undercut the credibility of US international commitments, and prompt other powers to undertake an increasingly urgent—but potentially futile—search for new arrangements to safeguard their financial stability and national security.
Japan is dependent on the United States for military protection and would have to make the painful choice of accommodating China or perhaps of allying with India in joint opposition to it
Prospects of a post-America scramble may already be discreetly shaping the planning agenda of the chancelleries of the major foreign powers even if not yet dictating their actual policies States, like individuals, are driven by inherited propensities—their traditional geopolitical inclinations and their sense of history—and they differ in their ability to discriminate between patient ambition and imprudent self-delusion
CHINA
China's remarkable economic momentum, its capacity for decisive political decisions motivated by clearheaded and self-centered national interest, its relative freedom from debilitating external commitments, and its steadily increasing military potential coupled with the worldwide expectation that soon it will challenge America's premier global status justify ranking China just below the United States in the current international hierarchy.
China thus prudently accepts the existing international system, even if not viewing as permanent the prevailing hierarchy within it. It recognizes that its own success depends on the system not collapsing dramatically but instead evolving toward a gradual redistribution of power. It seeks more influence, craves international respect, and still resents its “century of humiliation,” but increasingly feels self-confident about the future
Rapid decline of America's global primacy would produce a global crisis that could devastate China's own well-being and damage its long-range prospects
By and large, they are still guided by Deng Xiaoping's famous maxim: “Observe calmly; secure our position: cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership.”
Deceptive Posture. The wisest posture in combat is to lay back, let one's opponent make fatal mistakes, and only then capitalize on them.
Unlike America's favorable geographic location, China is potentially vulnerable to a strategic encirclement. Japan stands in the way of [the Pacific].
China's ambitions are beginning to surface more openly, with nationalistic assertiveness increasingly undermining calm posture.
EUROPEAN UNION
The EU as such is not a major independent power on the global scene, even though Great Britain, France, and Germany enjoy a residual global status
Germany is the economic engine of Europe and matches China in its exporting prowess but remains reluctant to assume military responsibilities outside of Europe.
The days when an exclusive Western club—dominated by Great Britain, France, or the United States—could convene to share global power at the Congress of Vienna, at the Versailles Conference, or at the Bretton Woods meeting, are irrevocably gone.
During the nineteenth century native fighters in head-on battles against the British in Central Africa, against the Russians in the Caucasus, or against the Americans by Indians typically suffered casualties at a ratio of 100:1
Too self-satisfied, it acts as if its central political goal is to become the world's most comfortable retirement home.
Only the economically united European region slightly surpasses the United States, but even so the Western European model exhibits higher structural unemployment and lower rates of growth.
[after US decline] Europe, not yet cohesive, would likely be pulled in several directions: Germany and Italy toward Russia because of commercial interests.
MIDDLE EAST
In 1943, President Roosevelt not so subtly told Britain's ambassador to the United States, Lord Halifax, while pointing at a map of the Middle East, that “Persian oil is yours. We share the oil of Iraq and Kuwait. As for Saudi Arabian oil, it's ours.” So began America's subsequently painful political involvement in that region.
America's long-standing and generous support for Israel, derived more from a genuine sense of moral obligation and less from real strategic congruity
An Israel that could become internationally viewed—to cite Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Barak's ominous warning in 2010—as an “apartheid” state would have doubtful long-term prospects.
Uncertainty and insecurity within Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE are likely to intensify. They may have to seek new and more effective protectors of their security. China would be an obvious and potentially economically motivated candidate.
The US position in the Middle East is manifestly deteriorating. An American decline would end it.
Bin Laden in twenty of his twenty-four major speeches, both before and after 9/11, justified violence against America by citing its support for Israel.
INDIA
Contemporary India is a complicated mixture of democratic self-governance, massive social injustice, economic dynamism, and widespread political corruption. As a result, its political emergence as a force in world affairs has lagged behind China's.
The view—held by its foreign policy elite—that India is not only a rival to China but also already one of the world's superpowers lacks sober realism.
The Indians envy the Chinese economic and infrastructural transformation. The Chinese are contemptuous of India's relative backwardness
The Indians fear Chinese-Pakistani collusion; the Chinese feel vulnerable to India's potential capacity to interfere with Chinese access through the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and Africa
RUSSIA
Russia considers itself to be too powerful to be satisfied with being merely a normal European state and yet has been too weak to permanently dominate Europe.
Contemporary postimperial Russia—because of the wealth of its sparsely populated but vast territory rich in natural resources— is destined to play a significant role on the world arena.
The fact of the matter, painful for many Russians to acknowledge, is that in such a Russo-Chinese alliance—assuming that the Chinese would want it—Russia would be the junior partner, with potentially negative territorial consequences eventually for Russia itself.
Russia will lack a secure geopolitical future as well as a self-satisfying modern and democratic identity without a closer connection with the West in general and with Europe specifically.
Strategic clarity means nothing less than a realistic assessment as to what kind of Russia would enhance—and not divide—the West. Only a Europe linked to America can confidently reach eastward to embrace Russia in a historically binding relationship.
Considering how dramatically global politics have changed in the course of the last forty years.
Looking beyond 2025, it is therefore not unrealistic to conceive of a larger configuration of the West. Turkey could by then already be a full member of the EU.
Under optimal circumstances resulting eventually even in Russia's membership in both the EU and NATO.
This is not pontification from a politically correct professor, this isn't armchair quarterbacking. This was written by Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and thereafter continually active in US Foreign Policy circles.
Overall thinking is that:
* By 2025, the US financial situation is apopalyptic
* By 2050, China's per capita GDP will be close to Japan's current inflation adjusted GDP
* By 2050, Europe and the US together will economically be much smaller than China
* The US-Japan and US-Korea alliance allows the US in Asia to mimic the UK in Europe's balance of power strategy
* The West should be enlarged to integrate Turkey, and eventually integrate Russia, into a free trade and free immigration zone stretching from Vancouver east to Vladivostok. Only a larger west can engage the China of 2050 as an equal.
Back in 1997, Brzezinski wrote in The Grand Chessboard (1997):
In the long run, global politics are bound to become increasingly uncongenial to the concentration of hegemonic power in the hands of a single state. Hence, America is not only the first, as well as the only, truly global superpower, but it is also likely to be the very last.... Economic power is also likely to become more dispersed. In the years to come, no single power is likely to reach the level of 30 percent or so of the world ' s GDP that America sustained throughout much of this century, not to speak of the 50 percent at which it crested in 1945.
Sections that I highlighted while reading follow, organized by relevant region.
How Asia got here
Most significant leadership roles in the first G-20 meeting in 2009 were played by the presidents of two states: the USA and China.
Inklings of Asia's emergence on the international scene first came into view with the brief rise of Japan as a major military power following its victory in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.
Based on high rates of savings, moderate wages, deliberate concentration on high technology, and the inflow of foreign capital through energetically promoted exports, Japan's GDP grew from $500 billion in 1975 to $5.2 trillion in 1995.
Before long, Japan's economic success was emulated—though in politically more authoritarian settings— by China, South Korea, Taiwan, the Association of Southeastern Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, and Indonesia, as well as by the more democratic India.
China, no longer faced by a potential Soviet threat and thus free to focus its resources on domestic development, achieved a degree of infrastructural modernization comparable to what had transpired in the West over the course of the previous century.
China and other Asian states a perplexing amalgam of economic liberalism and state capitalism demonstrated a surprising capacity for economic growth and technological innovation. Why don't we in the west soberly evaluate this system, learn from it, and adapt the benefits? Instead, we let our [so called] "free market" and "democracy" be surpassed by the incremental innovations in Asian politics.
UNITED STATES
The United States is still preeminent but the legitimacy, effectiveness, and durability of its leadership is increasingly questioned worldwide because of the complexity of its internal and external challenges. Nevertheless, in every significant and tangible dimension of traditional power—military, technological, economic, and financial—America is still peerless.
This reality may not endure for very long but it is still the current fact of international life.
There are several alarming similarities between the Soviet Union in the years just prior to its fall and the America of the early twenty-first century. The Soviet Union, with an increasingly gridlocked governmental system incapable of enacting serious policy revisions, in effect bankrupted itself by committing an inordinate percentage of its GNP to a decades-long military rivalry with the United States and exacerbated this problem by taking on the additional costs of a decade-long attempt to conquer Afghanistan. Not surprisingly, it could not afford to sustain its competition with America in cutting-edge technological sectors and thus fell further. behind; its economy stumbled and the society's quality of life further deteriorated in comparison to the West; its ruling Communist class became cynically insensitive to widening social disparities while hypocritically masking its own privileged life-style; and finally, in foreign affairs it became increasingly self-isolated, while precipitating a geopolitically damaging hostility with its once-prime Eurasian ally, Communist China.
Idealism & materialism defined America from the start and helped obscure and justify should have been profoundly troubling: eviction and extinction Indians (with the Indian Removal Act, passed by Congress in 1830, representing the first formalized case of ethnic cleansing), slavery, repression and segregation of black Americans.
The Mexico seen by the US was ignored by others until recently. An expansionist and territorially greedy power, ruthless in its pursuit of material interests, imperialist in its international ambitions, and hypocritical in its democratic affectations. Planting of the American flag in the Hawaiian kingdom and some decades later even across the Pacific, in the Philippines (from which the United States withdrew only after World War II). Cuba and parts of Central America also had encounters with US power that were reminiscent of Mexico's experience.
President George W. Bush: “Our nation is chosen by God and commissioned by history to be a model for the world” (August 28, 2000).
The post 2020 fiscal outlook is downright apocalyptic.... The United States is fast approaching a historic turning point: either it will act to get its fiscal house in order, thereby restoring the prerequisites of its primacy in the world, or it will fail to do so and suffer both the domestic and international consequences.
America's flawed financial system is a major liability. Financial speculators both in banks and in hedge funds, effectively immune to shareholder control, reaped enormous personal profits without the redeeming benefits of economic innovation or job creation.
Recent studies comparing US intergenerational earnings mobility to those of various European countries show that overall economic mobility is actually lower in “the land of opportunity” than in the rest of the developed world.
On a symbolic level, the fact that China—in rural and small-town respects still a premodern society—is now moving ahead of the United States in such highly visible examples of twenty-first-century structural innovation speaks volumes. As America's infrastructure continues to decay it will inevitably impact its economic output.
Poorly educated American citizens. What passes for news tends to be trivia or human-interest stories. Cumulative effect of such widespread ignorance makes the public more susceptible to demagogically stimulated fear, especially when aroused by a terrorist attack. Public ignorance creates an American political environment more hospitable to extremist simplifications—abetted by interested lobbies—than to nuanced views of the inherently more complex global realities of the post–Cold War era. Key word here: demagogy.
Building off of the public's basic ignorance of world history and geography, profit-motivated mass media exploited public fears allowing for the demagogically inclined Bush administration to spend eight years remaking the United States into a crusader state
America's existing political system—highly dependent on financial contributions to political campaigns—is increasingly vulnerable to the power of well-endowed but narrowly motivated domestic and foreign lobbies that are able to exploit the existing political structure in order to advance their agendas at the expense of the national interest.
Process with roots as large and as deep as political polarization is unlikely to be reversed easily, if at all.... Our nation is in for an extended period of political warfare between the left and the right.
The basic fact, which the currently fashionable deconstruction of the American system tends to slight, is that America's decline is not foreordained.
Advantages
* America's relatively strong demographic base, especially when compared to those of Europe, Japan, and Russia.
* America's capacity for reactive mobilization. The pattern of its democratic politics is for delayed reactions, followed by social mobilization in the face of a danger that prompts national unity in action.
* Some of America's liabilities provide ready-made foci for social mobilization on behalf of socially constructive goals.
* Unlike some major powers, America has the advantage of a uniquely secure, natural resource–rich, strategically favorable, and very large geographic base for a population that is nationally cohesive and not beset by any significant ethnic separatism.
* America's location on the edge of the world's two most important oceans—the Atlantic and the Pacific—offers a security barrier while America's shores provide a springboard for maritime commerce and, if necessary, for transoceanic power projection.
* Broad view of America as fundamentally a democracy still retains its residual appeal.
Could patiently and persistently pursued domestic reforms turn America into an example of an intelligent society in which a productive, energetic, and innovative economy serves as the basis for shaping a society that is culturally, intellectually, and spiritually more gratifying?
After Collapse
Hence one “intermediate” and perhaps more likely outcome could involve a period of inconclusive domestic drift, combining spreading decay in America's quality of life, national infrastructure, economic competitiveness, and social well-being, though with some belated adjustments in US foreign policy somewhat reducing the high costs and painful risks of America's lately practiced propensity for lonely interventionism.
Deepening domestic stagnation would further damage America's global standing, undercut the credibility of US international commitments, and prompt other powers to undertake an increasingly urgent—but potentially futile—search for new arrangements to safeguard their financial stability and national security.
Japan is dependent on the United States for military protection and would have to make the painful choice of accommodating China or perhaps of allying with India in joint opposition to it
Prospects of a post-America scramble may already be discreetly shaping the planning agenda of the chancelleries of the major foreign powers even if not yet dictating their actual policies States, like individuals, are driven by inherited propensities—their traditional geopolitical inclinations and their sense of history—and they differ in their ability to discriminate between patient ambition and imprudent self-delusion
CHINA
China's remarkable economic momentum, its capacity for decisive political decisions motivated by clearheaded and self-centered national interest, its relative freedom from debilitating external commitments, and its steadily increasing military potential coupled with the worldwide expectation that soon it will challenge America's premier global status justify ranking China just below the United States in the current international hierarchy.
China thus prudently accepts the existing international system, even if not viewing as permanent the prevailing hierarchy within it. It recognizes that its own success depends on the system not collapsing dramatically but instead evolving toward a gradual redistribution of power. It seeks more influence, craves international respect, and still resents its “century of humiliation,” but increasingly feels self-confident about the future
Rapid decline of America's global primacy would produce a global crisis that could devastate China's own well-being and damage its long-range prospects
By and large, they are still guided by Deng Xiaoping's famous maxim: “Observe calmly; secure our position: cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership.”
Deceptive Posture. The wisest posture in combat is to lay back, let one's opponent make fatal mistakes, and only then capitalize on them.
Unlike America's favorable geographic location, China is potentially vulnerable to a strategic encirclement. Japan stands in the way of [the Pacific].
China's ambitions are beginning to surface more openly, with nationalistic assertiveness increasingly undermining calm posture.
EUROPEAN UNION
The EU as such is not a major independent power on the global scene, even though Great Britain, France, and Germany enjoy a residual global status
Germany is the economic engine of Europe and matches China in its exporting prowess but remains reluctant to assume military responsibilities outside of Europe.
The days when an exclusive Western club—dominated by Great Britain, France, or the United States—could convene to share global power at the Congress of Vienna, at the Versailles Conference, or at the Bretton Woods meeting, are irrevocably gone.
During the nineteenth century native fighters in head-on battles against the British in Central Africa, against the Russians in the Caucasus, or against the Americans by Indians typically suffered casualties at a ratio of 100:1
Too self-satisfied, it acts as if its central political goal is to become the world's most comfortable retirement home.
Only the economically united European region slightly surpasses the United States, but even so the Western European model exhibits higher structural unemployment and lower rates of growth.
[after US decline] Europe, not yet cohesive, would likely be pulled in several directions: Germany and Italy toward Russia because of commercial interests.
MIDDLE EAST
In 1943, President Roosevelt not so subtly told Britain's ambassador to the United States, Lord Halifax, while pointing at a map of the Middle East, that “Persian oil is yours. We share the oil of Iraq and Kuwait. As for Saudi Arabian oil, it's ours.” So began America's subsequently painful political involvement in that region.
America's long-standing and generous support for Israel, derived more from a genuine sense of moral obligation and less from real strategic congruity
An Israel that could become internationally viewed—to cite Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Barak's ominous warning in 2010—as an “apartheid” state would have doubtful long-term prospects.
Uncertainty and insecurity within Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE are likely to intensify. They may have to seek new and more effective protectors of their security. China would be an obvious and potentially economically motivated candidate.
The US position in the Middle East is manifestly deteriorating. An American decline would end it.
Bin Laden in twenty of his twenty-four major speeches, both before and after 9/11, justified violence against America by citing its support for Israel.
INDIA
Contemporary India is a complicated mixture of democratic self-governance, massive social injustice, economic dynamism, and widespread political corruption. As a result, its political emergence as a force in world affairs has lagged behind China's.
The view—held by its foreign policy elite—that India is not only a rival to China but also already one of the world's superpowers lacks sober realism.
The Indians envy the Chinese economic and infrastructural transformation. The Chinese are contemptuous of India's relative backwardness
The Indians fear Chinese-Pakistani collusion; the Chinese feel vulnerable to India's potential capacity to interfere with Chinese access through the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and Africa
RUSSIA
Russia considers itself to be too powerful to be satisfied with being merely a normal European state and yet has been too weak to permanently dominate Europe.
Contemporary postimperial Russia—because of the wealth of its sparsely populated but vast territory rich in natural resources— is destined to play a significant role on the world arena.
The fact of the matter, painful for many Russians to acknowledge, is that in such a Russo-Chinese alliance—assuming that the Chinese would want it—Russia would be the junior partner, with potentially negative territorial consequences eventually for Russia itself.
Russia will lack a secure geopolitical future as well as a self-satisfying modern and democratic identity without a closer connection with the West in general and with Europe specifically.
Strategic clarity means nothing less than a realistic assessment as to what kind of Russia would enhance—and not divide—the West. Only a Europe linked to America can confidently reach eastward to embrace Russia in a historically binding relationship.
Considering how dramatically global politics have changed in the course of the last forty years.
Looking beyond 2025, it is therefore not unrealistic to conceive of a larger configuration of the West. Turkey could by then already be a full member of the EU.
Under optimal circumstances resulting eventually even in Russia's membership in both the EU and NATO.
October 10, 2019
Лучшие цитаты:
"В действительности Советский Союз мог соперничать с Америкой только в одной сфере – военной мощи."
"Способность привлекать и ассимилировать иностранцев, с одной стороны, укрепляет демографическую базу Америки, а с другой – улучшает долгосрочные экономические перспективы и повышает международный престиж."
"Беларусь, несмотря на открытое давление со стороны Путина, отказалась признавать независимость Южной Осетии и Абхазии (которую Россия провозгласила после столкновения с Грузией в 2008 году)."
"Не требующее от России особых усилий или затрат поглощение Беларуси поставит под удар будущее Украины как по-настоящему суверенного государства."
"Россия будет тихой сапой внедряться в украинскую службу безопасности и силовые структуры, чтобы ослабить способность Украины защитить в случае необходимости свою независимость."
"общемировые потребности в воде будут удваиваться каждые 20 лет"
"России принадлежит в Арктике огромная территория и большой запас природных богатств. Ее доля внутри Северного Полярного круга составляет 3,1 миллиона км (что сопоставимо с площадью Индии), на Арктику приходится 91 % добычи российского природного газа, 80 % разведанных газовых месторождений, 90 % шельфовых углеводородных запасов и большие залежи металлов"
"Европа, к сожалению, не видит дальше своего носа, Россия оглядывается в прошлое, Китай смотрит в собственное будущее, а Индия, с завистью, – на Китай."
"В отличие от России Турция никогда не впадала ни в манихейские страсти по истреблению собственного народа, ни в тоталитаризм."
"Япония считается третьей по величине экономикой мира, лишь недавно уступив Китаю второе место."
"Тайваню понадобилось около 60 лет на переход – при внушительной поддержке и сочувствии Штатов – от авторитаризма к конституционной демократии."
"В действительности Советский Союз мог соперничать с Америкой только в одной сфере – военной мощи."
"Способность привлекать и ассимилировать иностранцев, с одной стороны, укрепляет демографическую базу Америки, а с другой – улучшает долгосрочные экономические перспективы и повышает международный престиж."
"Беларусь, несмотря на открытое давление со стороны Путина, отказалась признавать независимость Южной Осетии и Абхазии (которую Россия провозгласила после столкновения с Грузией в 2008 году)."
"Не требующее от России особых усилий или затрат поглощение Беларуси поставит под удар будущее Украины как по-настоящему суверенного государства."
"Россия будет тихой сапой внедряться в украинскую службу безопасности и силовые структуры, чтобы ослабить способность Украины защитить в случае необходимости свою независимость."
"общемировые потребности в воде будут удваиваться каждые 20 лет"
"России принадлежит в Арктике огромная территория и большой запас природных богатств. Ее доля внутри Северного Полярного круга составляет 3,1 миллиона км (что сопоставимо с площадью Индии), на Арктику приходится 91 % добычи российского природного газа, 80 % разведанных газовых месторождений, 90 % шельфовых углеводородных запасов и большие залежи металлов"
"Европа, к сожалению, не видит дальше своего носа, Россия оглядывается в прошлое, Китай смотрит в собственное будущее, а Индия, с завистью, – на Китай."
"В отличие от России Турция никогда не впадала ни в манихейские страсти по истреблению собственного народа, ни в тоталитаризм."
"Япония считается третьей по величине экономикой мира, лишь недавно уступив Китаю второе место."
"Тайваню понадобилось около 60 лет на переход – при внушительной поддержке и сочувствии Штатов – от авторитаризма к конституционной демократии."
July 25, 2021
Idomios įžvalgos, kurių nemaža dalis atsispindi ir šiuolaikiniuose tarptautiniuose santykiuose
June 30, 2013
Mr. Brzezinski lays out his views with great clarity. Amongst all the things he writes, I was appreciative of his estimation that we in the US are shooting ourselves in the head by our ignorance of other nations in the world and by our ignorance about the difficult challenges facing us on quite a few fronts. I, also, appreciate how in a deft drawing of the fall of the USSR, he does not make mention of Ronald Reagan--- and the analysis is none the less cogent for it. He succinctly renders devastating, but fair, judgement on the foreign policy debacles of George W. Bush. Lest Mr. Brzezinski be brushed with the "blame America first" paint, he indicates some promising avenues for our country to follow to avoid a collapse of US influence in the world.
We all should be grateful, as I shall will be until I die, for Mr. Brzezinski relegating Joe Scarborough speechless on "Morning Joe." I don't know that it is, but I hope the video is on YouTube. If it is, it will make your day and may prod you to read this book.
We all should be grateful, as I shall will be until I die, for Mr. Brzezinski relegating Joe Scarborough speechless on "Morning Joe." I don't know that it is, but I hope the video is on YouTube. If it is, it will make your day and may prod you to read this book.
March 3, 2012
Great read!!
Any student or follower of current events will find this latest exposition of Zbigniew Brzezinski a useful jewel to distinguish our present world situation; also, how America may plan itself to deal as one of three superpowers and not lead ( and protect) on its own.
I would use this book as a textbook. I'm sure it is beginning to go on the college bookstores selves---I hope so!
Without letting up on any spoilers, the problems of our educational system does prop up and our debt; also, China is not ready to be the main world's benefactor, which I saw many moon ago.
It is a short book. Please take the time to read it!
Any student or follower of current events will find this latest exposition of Zbigniew Brzezinski a useful jewel to distinguish our present world situation; also, how America may plan itself to deal as one of three superpowers and not lead ( and protect) on its own.
I would use this book as a textbook. I'm sure it is beginning to go on the college bookstores selves---I hope so!
Without letting up on any spoilers, the problems of our educational system does prop up and our debt; also, China is not ready to be the main world's benefactor, which I saw many moon ago.
It is a short book. Please take the time to read it!
March 6, 2012
Zbig is a coherent foreign policy thinker, and this was a coherent, short update on foreign policy
April 20, 2018
I listened to the audio version of this book on Audible.
Brzezinski's analysis is insightful and reflects the mind of a thinker with deep knowledge on the subject. Although presented in a very dry manner, some of that may be due to the narrator's voice timbre and reading style.
While I recognize Brzezinski's mastery of the topic of international relations, and would never presume to challenge his knowledge, I nevertheless had two major issues with this book:
First, Brzezinski's predictions are uniformly linear. While it's never easy to accurately predict chaos (punctuated equilibrium, exogenous shocks, etc., depending on your academic bent), an insightful look into the crystal ball should at least include the possibility of such things happening.
Some examples of chaos that have been introduced into the system since this book was published include:
(a) The populist backlash against too-rapid implementation of social engineering resulting in the election of Donald Trump in the USA, the Great Britain exit from the EU, election of right-leaning populists in Hungary and other European nations, and so on, which have led at a minimum to varying degrees of fractured national unity;
(b) Putin's re-ascendance to the Russian presidency and his concomitant actions to reassert Russia as a world power, and Xi's decision to become "President for life" in China;
(c) The seeming detente between North and South Korea and any attendant reduction in tension;
Any one of these events could affect Brzezinski's thesis of a declining U.S. influence in the world and, in my opinion, should be accounted for by at least a dummy variable in the equation.
Second, I detected quite a bit of influence in Brzenski's analyses of his political bias. While no one can avoid all bias in writing a scholarly work, it should be less easily apparent than it was in this work.
All in all, a worthwhile investment of time listening to the words of a brilliant thinker.
Brzezinski's analysis is insightful and reflects the mind of a thinker with deep knowledge on the subject. Although presented in a very dry manner, some of that may be due to the narrator's voice timbre and reading style.
While I recognize Brzezinski's mastery of the topic of international relations, and would never presume to challenge his knowledge, I nevertheless had two major issues with this book:
First, Brzezinski's predictions are uniformly linear. While it's never easy to accurately predict chaos (punctuated equilibrium, exogenous shocks, etc., depending on your academic bent), an insightful look into the crystal ball should at least include the possibility of such things happening.
Some examples of chaos that have been introduced into the system since this book was published include:
(a) The populist backlash against too-rapid implementation of social engineering resulting in the election of Donald Trump in the USA, the Great Britain exit from the EU, election of right-leaning populists in Hungary and other European nations, and so on, which have led at a minimum to varying degrees of fractured national unity;
(b) Putin's re-ascendance to the Russian presidency and his concomitant actions to reassert Russia as a world power, and Xi's decision to become "President for life" in China;
(c) The seeming detente between North and South Korea and any attendant reduction in tension;
Any one of these events could affect Brzezinski's thesis of a declining U.S. influence in the world and, in my opinion, should be accounted for by at least a dummy variable in the equation.
Second, I detected quite a bit of influence in Brzenski's analyses of his political bias. While no one can avoid all bias in writing a scholarly work, it should be less easily apparent than it was in this work.
All in all, a worthwhile investment of time listening to the words of a brilliant thinker.
April 2, 2021
من المهم جدا قراءة هذا الكتاب لكل مهتم بالشأن السياسي..
تم تأليف الكتاب قبل عشر سنوات تقريبا وحاول بريجنسكي في هذا العمل تحديد مشاكل أمريكا وأسباب تدهورها العالمي وتقديم حلول من أجل العمل على تجديد أمريكا وضمان بقائها في الريادة العالمية ومجابهة الصعود الصاروخي للصين والدول الآسيوية عموما وتحول مركز القوة من الغرب إلى الشرق..
من أهم الحلول التي قدمها بريجنسكي هي العمل على تجديد أمريكا داخليا ومحاولة إصلاح مشاكلها الداخلية المتأزمة والعمل على تجديد أوربا التي بدأت تضعف وتفقد بريقها وتحولت إلى عبء على أكتافها وقد طرح ودعم بشدة فكرة ضم روسيا وتركيا إلى الاتحاد الأوربي والعمل على احتوائهما في المنظومة الغربية..
بريجنسكي لا يرى عالم ما بعد أمريكا صينيا بل يراه فوضويا وهذه الفوضى قد تسبب حروبا مدمرة خاصة مع الأزمات الآسيوية المتعددة والقنابل الموقوتة كالصراع الكوري الشمالي والجنوبي والصراع الهندي الباكستاني وأزمة كشمير والتنافس بين الهند والصين ��الصراع الصيني الروسي وأزمات الشرق الأوسط والمشكلة الفلسطينية الإسرائيلية وغيرها..
كل هذه الأزمات وما سيترتب عن انسحاب أمريكا وتراجعها وتخليها عن دور الشرطي العالمي قد يفجر المنطقة بأكملها ويقود إلى حروب مدمرة..
تم تأليف الكتاب قبل عشر سنوات تقريبا وحاول بريجنسكي في هذا العمل تحديد مشاكل أمريكا وأسباب تدهورها العالمي وتقديم حلول من أجل العمل على تجديد أمريكا وضمان بقائها في الريادة العالمية ومجابهة الصعود الصاروخي للصين والدول الآسيوية عموما وتحول مركز القوة من الغرب إلى الشرق..
من أهم الحلول التي قدمها بريجنسكي هي العمل على تجديد أمريكا داخليا ومحاولة إصلاح مشاكلها الداخلية المتأزمة والعمل على تجديد أوربا التي بدأت تضعف وتفقد بريقها وتحولت إلى عبء على أكتافها وقد طرح ودعم بشدة فكرة ضم روسيا وتركيا إلى الاتحاد الأوربي والعمل على احتوائهما في المنظومة الغربية..
بريجنسكي لا يرى عالم ما بعد أمريكا صينيا بل يراه فوضويا وهذه الفوضى قد تسبب حروبا مدمرة خاصة مع الأزمات الآسيوية المتعددة والقنابل الموقوتة كالصراع الكوري الشمالي والجنوبي والصراع الهندي الباكستاني وأزمة كشمير والتنافس بين الهند والصين ��الصراع الصيني الروسي وأزمات الشرق الأوسط والمشكلة الفلسطينية الإسرائيلية وغيرها..
كل هذه الأزمات وما سيترتب عن انسحاب أمريكا وتراجعها وتخليها عن دور الشرطي العالمي قد يفجر المنطقة بأكملها ويقود إلى حروب مدمرة..
September 11, 2018
I Always loved Zbigniew Brzezinski books, unparalleled thinker in the modern geopolitics. Skillfully crafting America’s “walk-through” if - and only if- America wishes to lead the world throughout the 21st century, but genuinely doubt that it would last beyond 2025, and Trump might prove to be the epilogue of the “American Century.”
The menace of this book is basically its core strength, i mean - who ever wish, need or have destroy America will definitely find the blue-print within this book.
The menace of this book is basically its core strength, i mean - who ever wish, need or have destroy America will definitely find the blue-print within this book.
August 21, 2014
The modern processes, which question the future state of affairs and position of the USA, have become quite a popular topic today. The New York bestseller “The Post American World” by Fareed Zakaria, resent articles such as “No One’s World” by Charles Kupchan and “American Profligacy and American Power” by Roger Altman are devoted to the significant changes in global politics and future role of the USA in it. Newly published book by Zbigniew Brzezinski, former security adviser at Jimmy Carter Administration, “Strategic Vision: American and the Crisis of Global Power” describes a gap of today’s position of the USA domestically as well as in international arena. The main thesis of the book whether or not America will maintain the role of a global power and how the face of the world will change by 2025. Pointing on an economic crash of the USA and Europe, raising China in power , general declining of the West, the author doubts American global dominance in the future. At the same time, he makes a prediction that falling America, will not bring another dominant power, but the world most likely will be chaotic.
The book consists of four chapters which illustrates current state of affairs the world by 2025 (first two chapters), and geopolitical balance after 2025.
The first part of the book is about today’s reality of the West residing power as well as waning American dream in the face of raising new powers Asia such as Japan, India, and China. Distribution of political power on the global arena in last three years questioned further dominance of the USA in Far East. Meanwhile, American latest war in Afghanistan and Iraq devastated the economy of country and increased its national debt. Overall, the global investable processes create a new world order, which the author refers as “post-American.”
In the third part of the book, “The world After America”, Brzezinski agues how future world order will look like. In contrast to many other authors, Brzezinski considers that Asian powers aren’t going to replace the USA , and the world will be “not Chinese ,but chaotic.” Also, he gives several possible scenarios of global turmoil in case if the USA hegemony would be completely eliminated.
The last part of the book is “Beyond 2025” is where Brzezinski gives recommendation on what kind of role the USA should play in the international arena. In this part, the author lacks to provide any specifics of how, for example, the USA should maintain balance in the East. On one side, emphasizing the involvement of the USA in regional institutions, on the other side, Brzezinski warns the USA to avoid involvement in military conflicts in Asia.
Masterfully written “Strategic Vision” gives overall picture of current and future processes in international arena and the USA role in them
The book consists of four chapters which illustrates current state of affairs the world by 2025 (first two chapters), and geopolitical balance after 2025.
The first part of the book is about today’s reality of the West residing power as well as waning American dream in the face of raising new powers Asia such as Japan, India, and China. Distribution of political power on the global arena in last three years questioned further dominance of the USA in Far East. Meanwhile, American latest war in Afghanistan and Iraq devastated the economy of country and increased its national debt. Overall, the global investable processes create a new world order, which the author refers as “post-American.”
In the third part of the book, “The world After America”, Brzezinski agues how future world order will look like. In contrast to many other authors, Brzezinski considers that Asian powers aren’t going to replace the USA , and the world will be “not Chinese ,but chaotic.” Also, he gives several possible scenarios of global turmoil in case if the USA hegemony would be completely eliminated.
The last part of the book is “Beyond 2025” is where Brzezinski gives recommendation on what kind of role the USA should play in the international arena. In this part, the author lacks to provide any specifics of how, for example, the USA should maintain balance in the East. On one side, emphasizing the involvement of the USA in regional institutions, on the other side, Brzezinski warns the USA to avoid involvement in military conflicts in Asia.
Masterfully written “Strategic Vision” gives overall picture of current and future processes in international arena and the USA role in them
June 18, 2017
In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote the Grand Chessboard and suggested a way to strengthen E.U., attract Russia, and cooperate with China. At that time, he had a strong hope for U.S. to take this probably only chance in human history for America to dominate the whole world. There was a real chance.
11 years late, he wrote another book, evaluating how the three presidents, Bush, Clinton, and Bush, did in foreign policies, and gave them average C-. Clearly, he wished Obama would head his advices. Indeed, Obama listened to him a lot.
In 2012, he published this book, and confessed that the chance to dominate this world was gone, forever. Europe was not going anywhere and would not become a strong power by itself. Russia headed to a more nationalistic direction while the pivoting to Asia pushed China to take a confrontational stand. Things didn't look good. More importantly, he pointed out that current American weakness is not primarily external but internal. The loss of confidence in Western model in general presented the deepest challenge to America. Probably to his great disappointment, none of the six domestic weaknesses he pointed out have been sufficiently addressed by Obama. Obama tried, but he was a far better orator than a leader. The failures to address them eventually led to Trump's surprising victory, a possibility he presciently pointed out then.
In 2016, he published another article, "Toward a Global Realignment" in American Interest, proposing his last grand plan for how to forge a new American-favor international order. As Obama leaving office, his advice clearly intended for the coming president and he meant for Hillary Clinton. But probably this time, his advices fell into completely deaf ears.
He reminds me of an ancient Chinese strategist, 范增. I wish America has a less divided political elites and public, who can then implement a consistent international policy, which would be good for the whole world. But to ask American politicians to think beyond a few emotional loaded slogans and next election seems to be too much.
So here we are, the next 10 years look pretty chaotic. If previously the problem for America was the lack of consistent strategic visions and strong leadership, the current problem is that America is too weak to play that role any more, in all possible measurements. In the coming decades, the strategic choices of Russia, Japan, Turkey, Iran, and possibly India will change the whole chessboard. It is going to be exciting but also very dangerous. I pray that the suffering will be little for this world and the better side of humanity would prevail.
11 years late, he wrote another book, evaluating how the three presidents, Bush, Clinton, and Bush, did in foreign policies, and gave them average C-. Clearly, he wished Obama would head his advices. Indeed, Obama listened to him a lot.
In 2012, he published this book, and confessed that the chance to dominate this world was gone, forever. Europe was not going anywhere and would not become a strong power by itself. Russia headed to a more nationalistic direction while the pivoting to Asia pushed China to take a confrontational stand. Things didn't look good. More importantly, he pointed out that current American weakness is not primarily external but internal. The loss of confidence in Western model in general presented the deepest challenge to America. Probably to his great disappointment, none of the six domestic weaknesses he pointed out have been sufficiently addressed by Obama. Obama tried, but he was a far better orator than a leader. The failures to address them eventually led to Trump's surprising victory, a possibility he presciently pointed out then.
In 2016, he published another article, "Toward a Global Realignment" in American Interest, proposing his last grand plan for how to forge a new American-favor international order. As Obama leaving office, his advice clearly intended for the coming president and he meant for Hillary Clinton. But probably this time, his advices fell into completely deaf ears.
He reminds me of an ancient Chinese strategist, 范增. I wish America has a less divided political elites and public, who can then implement a consistent international policy, which would be good for the whole world. But to ask American politicians to think beyond a few emotional loaded slogans and next election seems to be too much.
So here we are, the next 10 years look pretty chaotic. If previously the problem for America was the lack of consistent strategic visions and strong leadership, the current problem is that America is too weak to play that role any more, in all possible measurements. In the coming decades, the strategic choices of Russia, Japan, Turkey, Iran, and possibly India will change the whole chessboard. It is going to be exciting but also very dangerous. I pray that the suffering will be little for this world and the better side of humanity would prevail.
April 4, 2023
"Strategic Vision" is a book written by Zbigniew Brzezinski, a renowned American foreign policy expert and former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter. The book was first published in 2012 and offers Brzezinski's analysis of the global political landscape and the strategic challenges facing the United States in the 21st century.
In the book, Brzezinski argues that the United States needs a comprehensive and forward-looking strategic vision in order to maintain its position as a global leader. He offers a critique of the foreign policy approaches of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations and argues that the United States needs to develop a more coherent and proactive strategy that takes into account the shifting power dynamics of the world.
Brzezinski also offers his analysis of various regions of the world, including Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, and identifies the key challenges and opportunities facing the United States in each region. He argues that the United States needs to engage with these regions in a more nuanced and strategic way in order to protect its interests and promote global stability.
Overall, "Strategic Vision" is an important contribution to the study of American foreign policy and the global political landscape. Brzezinski's analysis is informed by his deep knowledge and experience in foreign policy, and his insights and recommendations are likely to be of interest to policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the complex challenges facing the United States and the world today.
GPT
In the book, Brzezinski argues that the United States needs a comprehensive and forward-looking strategic vision in order to maintain its position as a global leader. He offers a critique of the foreign policy approaches of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations and argues that the United States needs to develop a more coherent and proactive strategy that takes into account the shifting power dynamics of the world.
Brzezinski also offers his analysis of various regions of the world, including Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, and identifies the key challenges and opportunities facing the United States in each region. He argues that the United States needs to engage with these regions in a more nuanced and strategic way in order to protect its interests and promote global stability.
Overall, "Strategic Vision" is an important contribution to the study of American foreign policy and the global political landscape. Brzezinski's analysis is informed by his deep knowledge and experience in foreign policy, and his insights and recommendations are likely to be of interest to policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the complex challenges facing the United States and the world today.
GPT
October 16, 2013
"Strategic Vision" by Zbigniew Brzezinski is a complex story with vast amounts of global economic standings. This book is an overview of global economic decline and many problems facing our international market and overall economies. Brzezinski also evaluates efforts given by others to improve economies and evaluates them.
There are no main characters other than Brzezinski. He tells of his viewpoints on different programs and investments made into the national and global markets. He also tells of his experience in economics and what he would do to change it.
This book takes place from an earlier American economy in the 1950's to modern times and national deficit. Zbigniew shows the cause and effects of American economic policy and how different cabinets over the years have had a positive or negative effect on the nations economy. The modern downfall of world markets was his inspiration to write this book.
The authors motivation is obviously impacted by his experience in business and investing. He tells of his views on impacts of different economic situations which proves his experience in his field. Brzezinski has a negative view of past political involvement in the U.S' economy.
I would recommend this book only to a mature audience who has an interest in business, economics, or politics. Many of the graphs and numbers can be confusing for a young audience. Otherwise it can be a very appealing title to read.
There are no main characters other than Brzezinski. He tells of his viewpoints on different programs and investments made into the national and global markets. He also tells of his experience in economics and what he would do to change it.
This book takes place from an earlier American economy in the 1950's to modern times and national deficit. Zbigniew shows the cause and effects of American economic policy and how different cabinets over the years have had a positive or negative effect on the nations economy. The modern downfall of world markets was his inspiration to write this book.
The authors motivation is obviously impacted by his experience in business and investing. He tells of his views on impacts of different economic situations which proves his experience in his field. Brzezinski has a negative view of past political involvement in the U.S' economy.
I would recommend this book only to a mature audience who has an interest in business, economics, or politics. Many of the graphs and numbers can be confusing for a young audience. Otherwise it can be a very appealing title to read.
August 9, 2012
Brzezinski entirely ignores the dangers posed by Jared Diamond in collapse,and fails to account for three unavoidable factors that have nothing to do with international politics. The first is the inevitable effects of global warming in at least the next fifty years, and the growing dearth of conventional argibusiness, and food shortages, famines and riots. The second is the interactive effects of a decrease in available potable water, and its collateral effect on the rise and spread of pandemic diseases, an inevitable cycle in human history recorded by the University of Chicago's William McNeill in his book Plagues and People. The third failure is the refusal to account for the inability of any nation, however militarily strong, to score economic victory in a global economy where the fates of all nations and currrencies are interconnected. Additional shortcomings are failures to recognize, as Einstein did, the inevitability of proliferation of uranium-235 gun-type nuclear weapons, the creation of antibiotic resistance bioweapons and credible attacks on cyber-controlled infrastructure. Overall, Brzezinski's crystal ball is as clouded as was Herman Kahn's in his 1960 On Thermonuclear War.
October 10, 2013
In Strategic Vision, Mr. Brzezinski's analysis of the present global political situation is superb. Mr Brzezinski elucidates several important shifts in power that are imperative information for anyone who desires a basic understanding of international relations. Furthermore, this book points out many domestic and global issues the United States will have to confront in order to maintain global stability.
However, there are several aspects of Strategic Vision that caused me to grant it a score of four stars rather than five. First, Mr. Brzezinski is constantly speculating. While these conjectures are not excessively far-fetched, they often convey the very worst possibilities compared to the very best possibilities. Second, Mr. Brzezinski offers few solutions to America's domestic problems, even while stressing these problems as equals to America's problems abroad. Lastly, Strategic Vision is extremely repetitive; I think there were fifteen paragraphs devoted exclusively to discussion about an enlarged West.
All things considered, I would still recommend this book to anyone interested in IR. It provides a good overview of contemporary issues for American foreign policy and a few proposals for consideration as well.
However, there are several aspects of Strategic Vision that caused me to grant it a score of four stars rather than five. First, Mr. Brzezinski is constantly speculating. While these conjectures are not excessively far-fetched, they often convey the very worst possibilities compared to the very best possibilities. Second, Mr. Brzezinski offers few solutions to America's domestic problems, even while stressing these problems as equals to America's problems abroad. Lastly, Strategic Vision is extremely repetitive; I think there were fifteen paragraphs devoted exclusively to discussion about an enlarged West.
All things considered, I would still recommend this book to anyone interested in IR. It provides a good overview of contemporary issues for American foreign policy and a few proposals for consideration as well.
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April 27, 2012As someone who worries abut the decline of America in the world, I found Brzezinski’s book very informative in giving me an overview. I would recommend it to others interested in geopolitical issues. It is for me hard reading, no anecdotes, and loaded with facts, statistics, history, and evaluations, which is great, but also requires more background than I have to fully grasp much of it. So instead of a review, I will simply point out that he deals with many conflict areas around the globe, with special attention to Russian, China, and Turkey. The Turkey analysis was particularly surprising and positive.
Brzezinsky acknowleges that America is waning, but he is not unduly pessimistic.
He backs it all up with detailed suggestions as to what steps America should take. The last line is, …”a stable global order ultimately depends on America’s ability to renew itself and to act wisely as the promoter and guarantor of a revitalized West and as the balancer and conciliator of a rising new East.”
Brzezinsky acknowleges that America is waning, but he is not unduly pessimistic.
He backs it all up with detailed suggestions as to what steps America should take. The last line is, …”a stable global order ultimately depends on America’s ability to renew itself and to act wisely as the promoter and guarantor of a revitalized West and as the balancer and conciliator of a rising new East.”
July 28, 2012
A small book, but very complex reading, Dr. Brzezinski describes the emergence of the USA as the world's only super power in 1991, following the demise of the Soviet Union.
The writer explores the present weaknesses and strengths of America and warns that the present path of its military at the expense of continuing inequality, declining education, lack of attention to its infrastructure, and political intransigence may lead to America toppling off its perch. The ensuing scramble as other nations seek "survival of the strongest" makes for thoughtful reading.
Dr. Brzezinski states that there is no one power that could dominate following the decline of the United States and that the USA would need to be instrumental in paving the way for a new partnership between the old powers of the West and the new powers of the East.
The writer explores the present weaknesses and strengths of America and warns that the present path of its military at the expense of continuing inequality, declining education, lack of attention to its infrastructure, and political intransigence may lead to America toppling off its perch. The ensuing scramble as other nations seek "survival of the strongest" makes for thoughtful reading.
Dr. Brzezinski states that there is no one power that could dominate following the decline of the United States and that the USA would need to be instrumental in paving the way for a new partnership between the old powers of the West and the new powers of the East.
February 21, 2012
The first 30 pages are like a test; can you read this without feeling lost about every 8 words? Then there are another 30 pages of the doldrums; can you read this without falling asleep? After that it's just difficult.
Which is not to say that I didn't enjoy it. The brief history of empires in the beginning was very enlightening and well-presented in spite of the extremely high reading level. There were only a few places where I thought the author was out of touch with reality, though I often reconsidered my own understanding of political realities in light of his deep explanations.
If you like your politics simplified and summarized, you'll hate this book. It was worth the struggle for me.
Which is not to say that I didn't enjoy it. The brief history of empires in the beginning was very enlightening and well-presented in spite of the extremely high reading level. There were only a few places where I thought the author was out of touch with reality, though I often reconsidered my own understanding of political realities in light of his deep explanations.
If you like your politics simplified and summarized, you'll hate this book. It was worth the struggle for me.
September 28, 2012
Great insight. Zibig provides a good, solid brief history of global politics and international affairs. He then jumps quickly to analyzing the status of the US in the context of current affairs, including a good section on the influence of social media. He also uses a number of charts and graphs that are easily understood, and concludes with a good assessment of where the US is today in the new environment which is post Cold War, post bi-polar. He acknowledges the waning power of the West in the global community and the rising challenge of the East, especially China. He is clear that the US must forge a new strategy in the face of this dramatically changing environment in order to hold its own.
April 21, 2016
Brzezinski's Strategic Vision is short, concise, and broad in its scope. It poses some good and bold questions about the potential for US decline if it is unable to get its house in order, and what this may mean for the international world order. It wagers some visionary scenarios for Europe and Asia that - in my opinion - are distanced from reality. Ultimately, the core of Brzezinski's argument has already been said, though it's a message worth repeating: if the US fails to maintain its role of global leadership, new regional orders (esp. that touted by China), will seek to replace it. Where the book falls short, I believe, is in Brzezinski's understanding of intra-European and intra-Asian dynamics. I would still recommend this book to the IR reader.
February 20, 2013
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski the father of MSNBC Morning Joe's co-host Mika Brzezinski This good was outstanding, and it will be one that read again. His insight to many of the worlds problems, and about the problems here in the United States, then, now, and in the future, from the time I have been watching Morning Joe, on MSNBC from 6:00-9:00 AM where he has appeared several times, if you could hear him speak, in person then one should do it. You will walk away thinking a lot more about the problems we have, and how we could over come them, if the Congress and the POTUS - President of the United States, would listen, to each other, and then work together.
January 9, 2014
Gives an interesting, concise historical background of our current global situations and plausible scenarios of what would happen if U.S. influence continues to decline.
Easy to read. Doesn't get bogged down in intricate details.
This also means that he leaves out a lot.
So, if you use this book as a template for a general understanding you may be satisfied. If you want this book to consider all the nuances of global warming, environmental degradation, shifting economic systems (i.e. there is a rise of appreciation of the commons--see books by David Bollier and Elinor Ostrom--and more cooperative vs. competitive economic systems) you may be dissatisfied.
Easy to read. Doesn't get bogged down in intricate details.
This also means that he leaves out a lot.
So, if you use this book as a template for a general understanding you may be satisfied. If you want this book to consider all the nuances of global warming, environmental degradation, shifting economic systems (i.e. there is a rise of appreciation of the commons--see books by David Bollier and Elinor Ostrom--and more cooperative vs. competitive economic systems) you may be dissatisfied.
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